【外刊精读】世界的动态变化
不知道大家有没有这个的感受，尽管生活在不断变好，科技在不断向前，但是我们的世界似乎正在变得越来越不安全。2022年上半年发生了很多国际大事，如俄罗斯与乌克兰的战争；斯里兰卡的政治和经济崩溃；前首相在日本被暗杀；美国通货膨胀、大规模枪击以及堕胎权的下台。今天让贸学长带领我们跟随经济学人一起了解世界的动态。https://pic2.zhimg.com/v2-8a03d6f06b78426fae09c79e91d5e3c5_b.jpg
原文导读Is the World Really Falling Apart,or Does It Just Feel That Way?
Scanning the headlines, it’s easy to conclude that something has broken. The pandemic. Accelerating crises from climate change. Global grain shortage. Russia's war on Ukraine. Political and economic meltdown in Sri Lanka. A former prime minister’s assassination in Japan. And, in the United States: inflation, mass shootings, a reckoning over Jan. 6 and collapsing abortion rights.
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That sense of chaos can be difficult to square with longer-term data showing that, on many metrics, the world is generally becoming better off.
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War is rarer today, by some measures, than it has been for most of the past 50 years — and, when it does occur, is significantly less deadly. Genocides and mass atrocities are less common all the time, too. Life expectancy, literacy and standards of living have all risen to historic highs. So steadily declining in recent decades: hunger, child mortality, and extreme poverty, liberating hundreds of millions from what are, by sheer numbers, among the pre-eminent threats facing humanity.
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So why does it often feel like, despite all the data, things are only getting worse?There are a few reasons for this seeming disparity— some more reassuring than others — not to mention one important measure: the state of democracy, by which the world is not improving at all. The ways in which the world is most significantly improving tend to be gradual, unfolding over generations.
Hundreds of millions might live healthier and safer lives than their parents did. But those often subtle changes will lift entire societies at a time, making it harder for individuals to notice the change. We tend to judge how we are doing compared to those around us, or compared to our own recent past— not compared to abstract benchmarks or previous generations.
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And many of the positive changes are about prevention. No one notices the wars that don’t happen, the family members who aren’t claimed by disease, the children who don’t die in infancy. And thanks to the internet, with news consumption far greater than it once was, even those who live far from crises now live in a digital world of constant, dire updates. A major story, like a mass shooting or the war in Ukraine, can feel ever-present in our lives.
If your social media feeds and home screens serve up a steady stream of calamities, they can feed an overwhelming— if sometimes misplaced— sense of threat, as if the world itself were caving in. When people express that they’re feeling as if the world is falling apart, they are not talking about long-view metrics like life expectancy. Rather, they tend to sense that humanity is besieged by upheaval and emergencies to a degree that it has not been before.
第一段：Scanning the headlines, it’s easy to conclude that something has broken. The pandemic. Accelerating crises from climate change. Global grain shortage. Russia's war on Ukraine. Political and economic meltdown in Sri Lanka. A former prime minister’s assassination in Japan. And, in the United States: inflation, mass shootings, a reckoning over Jan. 6 and collapsing abortion rights.
参考译文：浏览一下头条新闻，很容易得出结论：有些东西坏了。大流行病；加速变化的气候变化所带来的危机；全球粮食短缺；俄罗斯与乌克兰的战争；斯里兰卡的政治和经济崩溃；前首相在日本被暗杀；美国通货膨胀、大规模枪击、1月6日的清算以及堕胎权的下台。
知识点解读：
1.Scan:本义是仔细地检查分析，现用于指细看浏览。例如，“The detective scanned every bit of evidence. 侦探仔细检查了每一样证据。” 常见的表达有“bone scan 骨骼扫描”、“scan code 扫描码”和“progressive scan 逐行扫描”，与scan意思相近的词语有如下，大家要注意区分：
Examine：可指粗略地查看，也可指仔细观查以确定事物的性质和功能等，例如，“Then examine your mind for whatever is distressing you, regardless of how much or how little you think it is doing so. 然后省察内心任何令你苦恼的事，不论苦恼多大或多小。”
Inspect：侧重按某些标准检查某物，找出不足或者不同之处，例如，“He revealed that professionals inspect the heavy machinery in the lab every two or three weeks to see whether anything needs to be replaced. 他透露到，每隔两到三周专业人员会对实验室中的重型机械进行检查，以确保是否需要更换某些零件。”
Investigate：指为发现事实真相了解掌握情况而进行深入细致的现场考，例如，“He says he is confident about his own integrity, and hopes the judicial system will quickly investigate the matter. 他也强调对自己的操守有信心，希望司法尽快侦办。”
2.grain shortage：粮食短缺，还可以表达为“a shortage of grain”和“food shortage”。表示“短缺”的词语还有如下，大家要注意积累：
destitute of：“They were destitute of necessaries of life. 他们缺少生活必需品。”
Absence/devoid of：“Due to the absence of/devoid of medical supplies, health-care staff were once plunged into desperation由于缺乏医疗用品，医护人员一度陷入绝望。”
scarcity of：“If there was a scarcity of anything, prices of that thing went up. 如果什么物品短缺，那种物品的价格就会上涨。”
3.economic meltdown：经济崩溃，是非常地道的表达，相当于“Economic collapse”、“economic crash”和“financial ruin”。
mass shootings：大规模射击事件，例如，“Additionally, Congress continues to examine possible firearms restrictions in the wake of mass-shootings that shocked the nation. 此外，在枪击案震惊全国后国会会继续检查可能的枪支管制措施。”
第二段：That sense of chaos can be difficult to square with longer-term data showing that, on many metrics, the world is generally becoming better off.
参考译文：这种混乱感很难与长期数据相吻合，长期数据表明，在许多指标上，世界总体上正在变得更好。
知识点解读：
1.square with:与……一致，相吻合，例如，“In present day English new linguistic facts abound which do not always square with the accepted rules of grammar.在当代英语中有许多新的语言现象，这些现象并不总是符合公认的语法规则的。”
better off：变好，例如，“We 're a lot better off today than we were a year ago.相比一年以前，今天的我们好了很多。”相对应的反义词为“worse off”，大家可以对比学习。
第三段：War is rarer today, by some measures, than it has been for most of the past 50 years — and, when it does occur, is significantly less deadly. Genocides and mass atrocities are less common all the time, too. Life expectancy, literacy and standards of living have all risen to historic highs. So steadily declining in recent decades: hunger, child mortality, and extreme poverty, liberating hundreds of millions from what are, by sheer numbers, among the pre-eminent threats facing humanity.
参考译文：从某种程度上说，今天的战争比过去50年的大部分时间都要少，而且哪怕战争发生，其致命性也会大大降低。种族灭绝和大规模暴行也一直不太常见。预期寿命、识字率和生活水平都达到了历史最高水平。近几十年来，饥饿、儿童死亡率和极端贫困正在稳步下降，使数亿人摆脱了人类面临的最大威胁。
知识点解读：
1.Life expectancy：预期寿命，相当于“Life span”，例如，“But when you informed me of her life expectancy, I also knew that her real grandson wasn't going to make it in time.但是当你告知我她的生命将近，我也知道了她真正的孙子肯定不能及时赶到了。”
rise to historic highs：创历史新高，是一个非常地道的表达。
第四段：So why does it often feel like, despite all the data, things are only getting worse?There are a few reasons for this seeming disparity— some more reassuring than others — not to mention one important measure: the state of democracy, by which the world is not improving at all. The ways in which the world is most significantly improving tend to be gradual, unfolding over generations.
参考译文：那么，尽管有这么多数据，为什么人们常常觉得事情只会变得更糟呢？这一表面上的差异有几个原因——其中一些原因比其他原因更令人放心——更不用说一个重要的衡量标准：世界根本没有改善的民主状况。世界最显著改善的方式往往是循序渐进地在几代人中逐步展开。
知识点解读：disparity：差异性，不一致，例如，“Her parents are concerned about her relationship with a man of such a disparity of age and experience.她的父母关心她与一位年龄和经验悬殊的男子来往。”
第五段：Hundreds of millions might live healthier and safer lives than their parents did. But those often subtle changes will lift entire societies at a time, making it harder for individuals to notice the change. We tend to judge how we are doing compared to those around us, or compared to our own recent past— not compared to abstract benchmarks or previous generations.
参考译文：数亿人的生活可能比他们的父母更健康、更安全。但这些往往微妙的变化将一次提升整个社会，使个人更难注意到变化。我们倾向于判断我们与周围的人相比，或者与我们自己最近的过去相比，而不是与抽象的基准或前几代人相比。
知识点解读：
subtle changes：微妙改变、潜移默化的改变，例如，“Did not pay attention to the music piece where the kind of thinking brought me subtle changes.并没有留意曲子里的乐思给我带来的那种潜移默化的改变。”和“Gran are keenly aware of each other's emotions, being able to judge disposition through subtle changes of body heat and skin color.格兰人对彼此的感情很敏感，能透过体温和肤色的细微变化体察对方的性情。”
第六段：And many of the positive changes are about prevention. No one notices the wars that don’t happen, the family members who aren’t claimed by disease, the children who don’t die in infancy. And thanks to the internet, with news consumption far greater than it once was, even those who live far from crises now live in a digital world of constant, dire updates. A major story, like a mass shooting or the war in Ukraine, can feel ever-present in our lives.
参考译文：许多积极的变化都与预防有关。没有人注意到没有发生的战争，没有被疾病夺走生命的家庭成员，没有在早夭的孩子。得益于互联网，新闻消费远远超过了过去，即使那些远离危机的人现在也生活在一个不断更新的数字世界里。一个重大的故事，比如一场大规模枪击或乌克兰战争，可以在我们的生活中永远存在。
知识点解读：
1.be claimed by:被夺去生命，尤其是指灾难等。
2.dire：极其严重的、糟糕的，例如，“Yet despite the anger, the economic consequences of expensive fuel might not be as dire as is often assumed.然后尽管愤怒，昂贵燃油价格带来的经济结果可能未必像大家想的那样糟糕。”
有两个非常地道的表达为“in dire need of”和“in dire straits”，意为“急需”和“困境”，例如，“Now that father's lost his job, we're in dire straits.父亲失业了, 我们陷入了极大困。”
第七段：If your social media feeds and home screens serve up a steady stream of calamities, they can feed an overwhelming— if sometimes misplaced— sense of threat, as if the world itself were caving in. When people express that they’re feeling as if the world is falling apart, they are not talking about long-view metrics like life expectancy. Rather, they tend to sense that humanity is besieged by upheaval and emergencies to a degree that it has not been before.
参考译文：如果你的社交媒体提要和主屏幕上不断出现灾难，它们可能会产生一种压倒性的威胁感，有时似乎是错位的，就好像世界本身正在崩溃。当人们表达他们感觉世界正在分崩离析时，他们不是在谈论寿命等长期指标。相反，他们倾向于感觉到人类被动荡和紧急情况包围到前所未有的程度。
知识点解读：
1.calamity：灾祸，相当于“disaster”。
2.sense of threat:受威胁感，sense of+n表示“……的感受”，例如，“sense of achievement 成就感”。
3.be besieged by: 陷入包围，例如，“The city was besieged by the enemy for a few days. 这座城市被敌人围困了几天。”
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